Category Archives: Long-Range Forecast

Autumn Outloook

The season of Fall begins very soon. September 23 is the start of Autumn and with the change of season, usually comes a change in weather. Climatologically speaking, September, October and November are considered the Fall months. What kind of weather can we expect this Fall?

As you can see from the images below, courtesy of the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, many areas are expecting a warm Fall, with above normal precipitation expected for much of the mid-Atlantic and southeastern US.

Given that September has already started fairly warm and dry in the northeast, with some tropical rains in the southeast, it appears that these predictions look good for now. But these types of outlooks can change, so keep in tune with your local forecasts for the latest weather predictions.

Winter Forecast

With the holidays now behind us, we now have the rest of winter to look forward to. The question is often asked – how bad of a winter will we have? I personally like colder weather and snow except when I am stuck in it on the roads, so to me, a snowy winter is not a “bad” winter.

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center released their latest forecast for the months of January, February and March recently. As you can see in the graphic below, most of the eastern part of the US is forecast to have even chances of being above or below normal in terms of temperature, so generally, I would expect fairly normal temperatures with some occasional swings. In terms of precipitation,  the graphic shows an expectation of above normal precipitation throughout the southeast and Mid-Atlantic states up to New Jersey. It is possible that we could see a few periods of colder weather and precipitation, resulting in snowfall, but so far this winter, warm weather has usually accompanied any wet weather we’ve seen.

JFM19JFM19 Precip

Stay tuned! If any significant winter weather is on the horizon, I’ll be sure to keep you informed.

Outlook for Late Summer and Early Fall

The Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service released their 3-month outlook for August, September and October in mid July. For most of the USA, equal chances of above and below normal temperatures and precipitation are expected, but there are several areas, including the highly populated east coast and northeastern areas of the country, where warmer than normal weather is indicated, as these maps show:

 

 


We are forecasted to be in a neutral El Nino/La Nina situation (sometimes called La Nada), so sea surface temperatures are not expected to be a major factor in or influence on our weather for these three months. In much of the area expected to experience above normal temperatures, this anomaly is due to recent trends, according to the National Weather Service.  Given that much of these areas only have a slight liklihood of above normal temperatures (just over 50%), we might see some mixing of warmer and cooler periods, and the temperature might just average slightly above normal. In any event, it does appear that warmer weather will last into early Autumn so don’t put away your summer clothes on Labor Day!